Palabras clave
menores infractores
SAVRY
reincidencia
factores de riesgo y protección
evidencias de validez
conducta antisocial penada
SAVRY
reincidencia
factores de riesgo y protección
evidencias de validez
conducta antisocial penada
Cómo citar
García-García, J. ., Ortega Campos, E. ., Zaldívar Basurto, F. ., & Gil-Fenoy, M. J. . (2016). Predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en una muestra de menores infractores españoles. Evidencias de validez del SAVRY . Psicumex, 6(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.36793/psicumex.v6i1.259
Resumen
El uso de instrumentos de predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en menores infractores está cada vez más extendido entre profesionales e investigadores, a tal grado que ha provocado el aumento del número de instrumentos desarrollados específicamente para menores infractores. Entre los instrumen- tos de predicción del riesgo de reincidencia creados para jóvenes destaca el Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY. Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002, 2006). En este trabajo se presenta una aproximación a la capacidad predictiva del instrumento SAVRY en su aplicación a menores infractores españoles. La muestra está formada por un total de 594 menores con causa judicial en el Juzgado de Menores de Almería (España), de edades comprendidas entre 14 y 18 años, por lo menos al momento de la comisión de la conducta antisocial penada. El 85.4% de los menores era de sexo masculino y 79% de nacionalidad española. Los resultados muestran que el instrumento SAVRY presenta una adecuada capacidad predictiva.
Citas
American Psychological Association. (2009). Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (6th ed). Washington, DC: APA.
Andrews D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The psychology of criminal conduct (5a ed). Cincinnati: Anderson.
Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., & Hoge, R. D. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation: Rediscovering psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17(1), 19-52. doi: 10.1177/0093854890017001004
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2002). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Consultation version. Tampa, Florida: Mental Health Institute- University of South Florida.
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2006). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): Consultation edition. Odessa, FI: Psychological Assessment Resources.
Capdevila, M., Ferrer, M., Blanch, M., Cañamares, A., & Domínguez, G. (2013). Actualización de la tasa de reincidencia de los jóvenes sometidos a medidas de libertad vigilada e internamiento en centro. Cataluña: Centro de Estudios Jurídicos-Departamento de Justicia.
Catchpole, R. E. H., & Gretton, H. M. (2003). The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment with Violent Young Offenders: A 1 Year Examination of Criminal Outcome. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 30(6), 688-708. doi: 10.1177/0093854803256455
Chapman, J. F., Desai, R. A., Falzer, P. R., & Borum, R. (2006). Violence Risk and Race in a Sample of Youth in Juvenile Detention: The Potential to Reduce Disproportionate Minority Confinement. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 4(2), 170-184. doi: 10.1177/1541204006286316
Childs, K., Frick, P. J., Ryals, Jr, J. S., Lingon- blad, A., & Villio, M. J. (2014). A Comparison of Empirically Based and Structured Professional Judgment Estimation of Risk Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(1), 40-57. doi: 10.1177/1541204013480368
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Cuervo, K., & Villanueva, L. (2015). Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors for Recidivism in Spanish Youth Offenders. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 59(11), 1149-1165. doi: 10.1177/0306624X14557917
Dolan, M. C., & Rennie, C. E. (2008). The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a Predictor of Recidivism in a United Kingdom Cohort of Adolescent Offenders with Conduct Disorder. Psychological Assessment, 20(1), 35-46. doi: 10.1037/1040- 3590.20.1.35
Duits, N., Doreleijers, T. A. H., & Van den Brink, W. (2008). Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth for Juvenile Court: Relevant Factors for Clinical Judgment. International. Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 31, 236-240. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2008.04.007
Farrington, D., Loeber, R., & Ttofi, M. (2012). Risk and protective factors for offending. In B. C. Welsh & D. P. Farrington (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of crime prevention (pp. 46-69). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Field, A. (2013). Discovering Statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Gammelgard, M., Koivisto, A. M., Eronen, M., & Kaltiala-Heino, R. (2008). The predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among institutionalized adolescents. The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 19(3), 352-370. doi: 10.1080/14789940802114475
García, J., Ortega, E., & De la Fuente, L. (2011). The Use of the Effect Size in JCR Spanish Journals of Psychology: From Theory to Fact. Spanish Journal of Psychology, 14(2), 1050-1055. doi: 10.5209/rev_SJOP.2011. v14.n2.49
García, J., Zaldívar, F., De la Fuente, L., Ortega, E., & Sainz-Cantero, B. (2012). El Sistema de Justicia Juvenil de Andalucía: Descripción y presentación de resultados a través de la investigación empírica. Edupsykhé, 11(2), 287–316.
George, D., & Mallery, P. (2003). Spss for Windows step by step: A Simple Guide and Reference. 11.0 Update (4a ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.
Heilbrun, K. (2009). Evaluation for risk of violence in adults. New York, NY: Oxford Uni- versity Press.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Bongers, I., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2016). Identifying Gender Specific Risk/Need Areas for Male and Female Juvenile Offenders: Factor Analyses with the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Law and Human Behavior, 40(1), 82-96.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2014). Predictive Validity of Risk Assessments in Juvenile Offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL: YV and YLS/CMI with Unstructured Clinical Assessments. Assessment, 21(3), 324-339. doi: 10.1177/1073191113498113
Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S. A., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Klein, V., Yoon, D., Briken, P., Turner, D., Spehr, A., & Rettenberger, M. (2012). Assessment of Accused Juvenile Sex Offenders in Germany: A Comparison of Five Different Measures. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 30(2), 181-195. doi:10.1002/bsl.2006
McEachran, A. (2001). The Predictive Validity of the PCL: YV and the SAVRY in a Population of Adolescent Offenders (Master thesis).
Simon Fraser University, Canada. Ortega, E., García, J., De la Fuente, L., & Zaldívar, F. (2012). Meta-análisis de la Reincidencia de la Conducta Antisocial Penada en Adolescentes Españoles, Edupsykhé, 11(2), 171-189.
Ortega, E., García, J., & Frías, M. (2014). Meta- análisis de la reincidencia criminal en menores: Estudio de la investigación española. Revista Mexicana de Psicología, 31(2), 111- 123.
San Juan, C., & Ocáriz, E. (2010). Perfil psicosocial, análisis del delito y evaluación de la intervención educativa en menores con medidas judiciales en la CAPV. Vitoria: Servicio Central de Publicaciones del Gobierno Vasco.
Shepherd, S. M., Luebbers, S., Ferguson, M., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Dolan, M. (2014). The Utility of the SAVRY Across Ethnicity in Australian Young Offenders. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 20(1), 31-45. doi: 10.1037/a0033972
Vallés, L., & Hilterman, E. (2006). SAVRY: Manual para la valoración estructurada de riesgo de violencia en jóvenes. Cataluña: Departamento de Justicia.
Vincent, G. M., Guy, L. S., Fusco, S. L., & Gershenson, B. G. (2011). Field reliability of the SAVRY with juvenile probation officers: Implications for training. Law and Human Behavior, 36, 225–236. doi: 10.1037/h0093974
Welsh, J. L., Schmidt, F., McKinnon, L., Chattha, H. K., & Meyers, J. R. (2008). A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments. Predictive and Incremental Validity. Assessment, 15(1), 104-115. doi: 10.1177/1073191107307966.
Andrews D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The psychology of criminal conduct (5a ed). Cincinnati: Anderson.
Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., & Hoge, R. D. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation: Rediscovering psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17(1), 19-52. doi: 10.1177/0093854890017001004
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2002). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Consultation version. Tampa, Florida: Mental Health Institute- University of South Florida.
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2006). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): Consultation edition. Odessa, FI: Psychological Assessment Resources.
Capdevila, M., Ferrer, M., Blanch, M., Cañamares, A., & Domínguez, G. (2013). Actualización de la tasa de reincidencia de los jóvenes sometidos a medidas de libertad vigilada e internamiento en centro. Cataluña: Centro de Estudios Jurídicos-Departamento de Justicia.
Catchpole, R. E. H., & Gretton, H. M. (2003). The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment with Violent Young Offenders: A 1 Year Examination of Criminal Outcome. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 30(6), 688-708. doi: 10.1177/0093854803256455
Chapman, J. F., Desai, R. A., Falzer, P. R., & Borum, R. (2006). Violence Risk and Race in a Sample of Youth in Juvenile Detention: The Potential to Reduce Disproportionate Minority Confinement. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 4(2), 170-184. doi: 10.1177/1541204006286316
Childs, K., Frick, P. J., Ryals, Jr, J. S., Lingon- blad, A., & Villio, M. J. (2014). A Comparison of Empirically Based and Structured Professional Judgment Estimation of Risk Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(1), 40-57. doi: 10.1177/1541204013480368
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Cuervo, K., & Villanueva, L. (2015). Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors for Recidivism in Spanish Youth Offenders. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 59(11), 1149-1165. doi: 10.1177/0306624X14557917
Dolan, M. C., & Rennie, C. E. (2008). The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a Predictor of Recidivism in a United Kingdom Cohort of Adolescent Offenders with Conduct Disorder. Psychological Assessment, 20(1), 35-46. doi: 10.1037/1040- 3590.20.1.35
Duits, N., Doreleijers, T. A. H., & Van den Brink, W. (2008). Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth for Juvenile Court: Relevant Factors for Clinical Judgment. International. Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 31, 236-240. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2008.04.007
Farrington, D., Loeber, R., & Ttofi, M. (2012). Risk and protective factors for offending. In B. C. Welsh & D. P. Farrington (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of crime prevention (pp. 46-69). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Field, A. (2013). Discovering Statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Gammelgard, M., Koivisto, A. M., Eronen, M., & Kaltiala-Heino, R. (2008). The predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among institutionalized adolescents. The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 19(3), 352-370. doi: 10.1080/14789940802114475
García, J., Ortega, E., & De la Fuente, L. (2011). The Use of the Effect Size in JCR Spanish Journals of Psychology: From Theory to Fact. Spanish Journal of Psychology, 14(2), 1050-1055. doi: 10.5209/rev_SJOP.2011. v14.n2.49
García, J., Zaldívar, F., De la Fuente, L., Ortega, E., & Sainz-Cantero, B. (2012). El Sistema de Justicia Juvenil de Andalucía: Descripción y presentación de resultados a través de la investigación empírica. Edupsykhé, 11(2), 287–316.
George, D., & Mallery, P. (2003). Spss for Windows step by step: A Simple Guide and Reference. 11.0 Update (4a ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.
Heilbrun, K. (2009). Evaluation for risk of violence in adults. New York, NY: Oxford Uni- versity Press.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Bongers, I., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2016). Identifying Gender Specific Risk/Need Areas for Male and Female Juvenile Offenders: Factor Analyses with the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Law and Human Behavior, 40(1), 82-96.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2014). Predictive Validity of Risk Assessments in Juvenile Offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL: YV and YLS/CMI with Unstructured Clinical Assessments. Assessment, 21(3), 324-339. doi: 10.1177/1073191113498113
Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S. A., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Klein, V., Yoon, D., Briken, P., Turner, D., Spehr, A., & Rettenberger, M. (2012). Assessment of Accused Juvenile Sex Offenders in Germany: A Comparison of Five Different Measures. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 30(2), 181-195. doi:10.1002/bsl.2006
McEachran, A. (2001). The Predictive Validity of the PCL: YV and the SAVRY in a Population of Adolescent Offenders (Master thesis).
Simon Fraser University, Canada. Ortega, E., García, J., De la Fuente, L., & Zaldívar, F. (2012). Meta-análisis de la Reincidencia de la Conducta Antisocial Penada en Adolescentes Españoles, Edupsykhé, 11(2), 171-189.
Ortega, E., García, J., & Frías, M. (2014). Meta- análisis de la reincidencia criminal en menores: Estudio de la investigación española. Revista Mexicana de Psicología, 31(2), 111- 123.
San Juan, C., & Ocáriz, E. (2010). Perfil psicosocial, análisis del delito y evaluación de la intervención educativa en menores con medidas judiciales en la CAPV. Vitoria: Servicio Central de Publicaciones del Gobierno Vasco.
Shepherd, S. M., Luebbers, S., Ferguson, M., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Dolan, M. (2014). The Utility of the SAVRY Across Ethnicity in Australian Young Offenders. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 20(1), 31-45. doi: 10.1037/a0033972
Vallés, L., & Hilterman, E. (2006). SAVRY: Manual para la valoración estructurada de riesgo de violencia en jóvenes. Cataluña: Departamento de Justicia.
Vincent, G. M., Guy, L. S., Fusco, S. L., & Gershenson, B. G. (2011). Field reliability of the SAVRY with juvenile probation officers: Implications for training. Law and Human Behavior, 36, 225–236. doi: 10.1037/h0093974
Welsh, J. L., Schmidt, F., McKinnon, L., Chattha, H. K., & Meyers, J. R. (2008). A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments. Predictive and Incremental Validity. Assessment, 15(1), 104-115. doi: 10.1177/1073191107307966.
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