Keywords
juvenile offenders
SAVRY
recidivism
risk and protective factors
validity evidence
antisocial behavior punished
SAVRY
recidivism
risk and protective factors
validity evidence
antisocial behavior punished
How to Cite
García-García, J. ., Ortega Campos, E. ., Zaldívar Basurto, F. ., & Gil-Fenoy, M. J. . (2016). Prediction of risk of recidivism in a sample of Spanish children offenders. Evidence of validity of SAVRY . Psicumex, 6(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.36793/psicumex.v6i1.259
Abstract
Prediction of risk of recidivism in a sample of Spanish young offenders. Validity evidence of SAVRY. The use of instruments for predicting the risk of recidivism in young offenders is increasingly widespread among professionals and researchers, causing the increase in the number of instruments specifically developed for juvenile offenders. Among the instruments for predicting the risk of recidivism created for youth highlights the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY. Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002, 2006). In this paper an approach to the predictive validity of SAVRY in its application offenders spanish young is presented. The sample consists of a total of 594 juveniles with court case in Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain), aged between 14 and 18 at the time of the commission of antisocial behavior punished. 85.4% of juveniles were male and 79% of spanish nationality. The results show that the SAVRY instrument has a good predictive capacity.
References
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Capdevila, M., Ferrer, M., Blanch, M., Cañamares, A., & Domínguez, G. (2013). Actualización de la tasa de reincidencia de los jóvenes sometidos a medidas de libertad vigilada e internamiento en centro. Cataluña: Centro de Estudios Jurídicos-Departamento de Justicia.
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Childs, K., Frick, P. J., Ryals, Jr, J. S., Lingon- blad, A., & Villio, M. J. (2014). A Comparison of Empirically Based and Structured Professional Judgment Estimation of Risk Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(1), 40-57. doi: 10.1177/1541204013480368
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Duits, N., Doreleijers, T. A. H., & Van den Brink, W. (2008). Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth for Juvenile Court: Relevant Factors for Clinical Judgment. International. Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 31, 236-240. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2008.04.007
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García, J., Zaldívar, F., De la Fuente, L., Ortega, E., & Sainz-Cantero, B. (2012). El Sistema de Justicia Juvenil de Andalucía: Descripción y presentación de resultados a través de la investigación empírica. Edupsykhé, 11(2), 287–316.
George, D., & Mallery, P. (2003). Spss for Windows step by step: A Simple Guide and Reference. 11.0 Update (4a ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.
Heilbrun, K. (2009). Evaluation for risk of violence in adults. New York, NY: Oxford Uni- versity Press.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Bongers, I., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2016). Identifying Gender Specific Risk/Need Areas for Male and Female Juvenile Offenders: Factor Analyses with the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Law and Human Behavior, 40(1), 82-96.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2014). Predictive Validity of Risk Assessments in Juvenile Offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL: YV and YLS/CMI with Unstructured Clinical Assessments. Assessment, 21(3), 324-339. doi: 10.1177/1073191113498113
Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S. A., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Klein, V., Yoon, D., Briken, P., Turner, D., Spehr, A., & Rettenberger, M. (2012). Assessment of Accused Juvenile Sex Offenders in Germany: A Comparison of Five Different Measures. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 30(2), 181-195. doi:10.1002/bsl.2006
McEachran, A. (2001). The Predictive Validity of the PCL: YV and the SAVRY in a Population of Adolescent Offenders (Master thesis).
Simon Fraser University, Canada. Ortega, E., García, J., De la Fuente, L., & Zaldívar, F. (2012). Meta-análisis de la Reincidencia de la Conducta Antisocial Penada en Adolescentes Españoles, Edupsykhé, 11(2), 171-189.
Ortega, E., García, J., & Frías, M. (2014). Meta- análisis de la reincidencia criminal en menores: Estudio de la investigación española. Revista Mexicana de Psicología, 31(2), 111- 123.
San Juan, C., & Ocáriz, E. (2010). Perfil psicosocial, análisis del delito y evaluación de la intervención educativa en menores con medidas judiciales en la CAPV. Vitoria: Servicio Central de Publicaciones del Gobierno Vasco.
Shepherd, S. M., Luebbers, S., Ferguson, M., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Dolan, M. (2014). The Utility of the SAVRY Across Ethnicity in Australian Young Offenders. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 20(1), 31-45. doi: 10.1037/a0033972
Vallés, L., & Hilterman, E. (2006). SAVRY: Manual para la valoración estructurada de riesgo de violencia en jóvenes. Cataluña: Departamento de Justicia.
Vincent, G. M., Guy, L. S., Fusco, S. L., & Gershenson, B. G. (2011). Field reliability of the SAVRY with juvenile probation officers: Implications for training. Law and Human Behavior, 36, 225–236. doi: 10.1037/h0093974
Welsh, J. L., Schmidt, F., McKinnon, L., Chattha, H. K., & Meyers, J. R. (2008). A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments. Predictive and Incremental Validity. Assessment, 15(1), 104-115. doi: 10.1177/1073191107307966.
Andrews D. A., & Bonta, J. (2010). The psychology of criminal conduct (5a ed). Cincinnati: Anderson.
Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., & Hoge, R. D. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation: Rediscovering psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17(1), 19-52. doi: 10.1177/0093854890017001004
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2002). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Consultation version. Tampa, Florida: Mental Health Institute- University of South Florida.
Borum, R., Bartel, P., & Forth, A. (2006). Manual for the Structured Assessment for Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): Consultation edition. Odessa, FI: Psychological Assessment Resources.
Capdevila, M., Ferrer, M., Blanch, M., Cañamares, A., & Domínguez, G. (2013). Actualización de la tasa de reincidencia de los jóvenes sometidos a medidas de libertad vigilada e internamiento en centro. Cataluña: Centro de Estudios Jurídicos-Departamento de Justicia.
Catchpole, R. E. H., & Gretton, H. M. (2003). The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment with Violent Young Offenders: A 1 Year Examination of Criminal Outcome. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 30(6), 688-708. doi: 10.1177/0093854803256455
Chapman, J. F., Desai, R. A., Falzer, P. R., & Borum, R. (2006). Violence Risk and Race in a Sample of Youth in Juvenile Detention: The Potential to Reduce Disproportionate Minority Confinement. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 4(2), 170-184. doi: 10.1177/1541204006286316
Childs, K., Frick, P. J., Ryals, Jr, J. S., Lingon- blad, A., & Villio, M. J. (2014). A Comparison of Empirically Based and Structured Professional Judgment Estimation of Risk Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(1), 40-57. doi: 10.1177/1541204013480368
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Cuervo, K., & Villanueva, L. (2015). Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors for Recidivism in Spanish Youth Offenders. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 59(11), 1149-1165. doi: 10.1177/0306624X14557917
Dolan, M. C., & Rennie, C. E. (2008). The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a Predictor of Recidivism in a United Kingdom Cohort of Adolescent Offenders with Conduct Disorder. Psychological Assessment, 20(1), 35-46. doi: 10.1037/1040- 3590.20.1.35
Duits, N., Doreleijers, T. A. H., & Van den Brink, W. (2008). Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth for Juvenile Court: Relevant Factors for Clinical Judgment. International. Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 31, 236-240. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2008.04.007
Farrington, D., Loeber, R., & Ttofi, M. (2012). Risk and protective factors for offending. In B. C. Welsh & D. P. Farrington (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of crime prevention (pp. 46-69). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Field, A. (2013). Discovering Statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Gammelgard, M., Koivisto, A. M., Eronen, M., & Kaltiala-Heino, R. (2008). The predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among institutionalized adolescents. The Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 19(3), 352-370. doi: 10.1080/14789940802114475
García, J., Ortega, E., & De la Fuente, L. (2011). The Use of the Effect Size in JCR Spanish Journals of Psychology: From Theory to Fact. Spanish Journal of Psychology, 14(2), 1050-1055. doi: 10.5209/rev_SJOP.2011. v14.n2.49
García, J., Zaldívar, F., De la Fuente, L., Ortega, E., & Sainz-Cantero, B. (2012). El Sistema de Justicia Juvenil de Andalucía: Descripción y presentación de resultados a través de la investigación empírica. Edupsykhé, 11(2), 287–316.
George, D., & Mallery, P. (2003). Spss for Windows step by step: A Simple Guide and Reference. 11.0 Update (4a ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon.
Heilbrun, K. (2009). Evaluation for risk of violence in adults. New York, NY: Oxford Uni- versity Press.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Bongers, I., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2016). Identifying Gender Specific Risk/Need Areas for Male and Female Juvenile Offenders: Factor Analyses with the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY). Law and Human Behavior, 40(1), 82-96.
Hilterman, E. L. B., Nicholls, T. L., & van Nieuwenhuizen, C. (2014). Predictive Validity of Risk Assessments in Juvenile Offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL: YV and YLS/CMI with Unstructured Clinical Assessments. Assessment, 21(3), 324-339. doi: 10.1177/1073191113498113
Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S. A., & Sturdivant, R. X. (2013). Applied Logistic Regression (3rd ed.). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Klein, V., Yoon, D., Briken, P., Turner, D., Spehr, A., & Rettenberger, M. (2012). Assessment of Accused Juvenile Sex Offenders in Germany: A Comparison of Five Different Measures. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 30(2), 181-195. doi:10.1002/bsl.2006
McEachran, A. (2001). The Predictive Validity of the PCL: YV and the SAVRY in a Population of Adolescent Offenders (Master thesis).
Simon Fraser University, Canada. Ortega, E., García, J., De la Fuente, L., & Zaldívar, F. (2012). Meta-análisis de la Reincidencia de la Conducta Antisocial Penada en Adolescentes Españoles, Edupsykhé, 11(2), 171-189.
Ortega, E., García, J., & Frías, M. (2014). Meta- análisis de la reincidencia criminal en menores: Estudio de la investigación española. Revista Mexicana de Psicología, 31(2), 111- 123.
San Juan, C., & Ocáriz, E. (2010). Perfil psicosocial, análisis del delito y evaluación de la intervención educativa en menores con medidas judiciales en la CAPV. Vitoria: Servicio Central de Publicaciones del Gobierno Vasco.
Shepherd, S. M., Luebbers, S., Ferguson, M., Ogloff, J. R. P., & Dolan, M. (2014). The Utility of the SAVRY Across Ethnicity in Australian Young Offenders. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 20(1), 31-45. doi: 10.1037/a0033972
Vallés, L., & Hilterman, E. (2006). SAVRY: Manual para la valoración estructurada de riesgo de violencia en jóvenes. Cataluña: Departamento de Justicia.
Vincent, G. M., Guy, L. S., Fusco, S. L., & Gershenson, B. G. (2011). Field reliability of the SAVRY with juvenile probation officers: Implications for training. Law and Human Behavior, 36, 225–236. doi: 10.1037/h0093974
Welsh, J. L., Schmidt, F., McKinnon, L., Chattha, H. K., & Meyers, J. R. (2008). A Comparative Study of Adolescent Risk Assessment Instruments. Predictive and Incremental Validity. Assessment, 15(1), 104-115. doi: 10.1177/1073191107307966.
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